Weekend storm to bring mostly rain, but that could change
A coastal storm that is expected to develop this weekend will bring mostly rain to Connecticut.
The National Weather Service says the Long Island Sound shoreline will have plain rain, while inland areas could see a wintry mix before a change to rain by late Saturday morning or Saturday afternoon.
“After the low passes, colder air could change precipitation back to snow or a wintry mix late Saturday night. Some snow or rain showers could linger into Sunday as well,” the NWS says.
The NWS says warmer air looks to keep snowfall totals down in northwest Connecticut where less than an inch is expected.
Snowfall, so far
Snowfall in December was above average with 22 inches at Bradley International Airport in Windsor Locks (14.6 inches above average); 20.8 inches in Norfolk (4.4 higher than normal); 5.5 inches in Bridgeport, about a half-inch above average.
According to the Northeast Regional Climate Center, January snowfall is below normal with just 5.7 inches in Norfolk- more than 8 inches below average. Bradley airport had 3.3 inches this month - nearly 6 inches below average. Sikorsky Memorial Airport’s 4.6-inch January snowfall is 1.2 inches below average.
Even in Vermont snowfall totals are well below average.
The National Weather Service in Burlington, Vt. says the snow depth atop Mount Mansfield currently sits at 40 inches. Last year at this time, the snow depth was 98 inches on Vermont’s highest peak.
When the rain, mixed precip will start and end
On Saturday, the best chance of rain is between noon and 11 p.m. with up to 1.5 inches possible.
The best chance of snow or sleet for inland areas is between 7 and 8 a.m. Saturday and from 3 to 5 a.m. Sunday.
When making your plans for this weekend, plan on being inside Saturday afternoon & overnight. A weekend storm will bring widespread rain to southern New England, with a chance for snow only in the highest elevations, more so in northern New England pic.twitter.com/MWLhCNp2XY— NWS Boston (@NWSBoston) January 23, 2020
The forecast hedge factor
In its forecast discussion, the NWS says; “Precipitation will overspread the area slowly Friday night into Saturday morning.
“While there is good agreement in regards to timing and track of the system, there remains uncertainties regarding precip type especially this far out. The track and timing of the developing surface low will be key in deciding the precipitation type.
“Quicker development of the surface low would supply colder air at the low levels translating to more wintry precip. Have kept a mainly plain rain event with the possibility of some wintry precip away from Long Island.”
In other words, stay tuned.
Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 42. Wind chill values between 20 and 30. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Calm wind.
Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 48. Wind chill values between 20 and 30 early. East wind around 6 mph.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Wind chill values between 25 and 30. East wind 7 to 9 mph.
Saturday: Snow and sleet likely, possibly mixed with freezing rain before 9 a.m., then rain and sleet likely between 9 a.m. and noon, then rain after noon. High near 40. East wind 11 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90 percent. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Saturday Night: Rain before midnight, then rain and sleet likely between midnight and 3 a.m., then snow and sleet likely after 3 a.m. Low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 90 percent. Little or no snow and sleet accumulation expected.
Sunday: A chance of rain and snow before 3 p.m., then a chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 30 percent.