From the 18,062 residents reported in the 2010 U.S. census, Wilton’s population is projected to decline nearly 20% by 2040, according to the Connecticut State Data Center’s 2015-2040 Connecticut Town Population Projections.

While the total state population is projected to slowly grow over the next 23 years, according to the center’s findings, Wilton’s population is expected to decline.

The projections are based on basic population change trends, including birth and death rates, age characteristics of the state’s population, and migration into and out of the state.

“It represents the entire year total projected resident population — that is, individuals [who] lived in Connecticut at least six months or more in 2015,” explained Michael Howser, director of the Connecticut Data Center.

Some may notice that the center’s population numbers differ from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey, which reported Wilton having a population of 18,643 in 2015. The Connecticut Data Center’s projections show a population of 17,723 for that year.

“The American Community Survey data is based on a five-year average from the surveys given in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015, and is based upon a smaller sample size than the administrative data utilized for the projections,” said Howser.

“The projection developed by the Connecticut State Data Center utilized the 2010 Decennial Census data as a base for the projections rather than the American Community Survey, as this provides a more comprehensive count of the population.”

From 17,723 in 2015, the Connecticut Data Center projects Wilton’s population to fall to:


  • 16,417 by 2020.

  • 15,342 by 2025.

  • 14,390 by 2030.

  • 14,223 by 2035.


Between 2035 and 2040, however, Wilton’s population is projected to increase roughly 3%, to 14,642.

Age groups


The only age group projected to increase is 5-14 — from 826 in 2015 to 1,169 by 2040. Projections for the other age groups are:

  • Age 15-19: 3,292 in 2015 to 2,774 by 2040.

  • Age 20-34: 1,842 in 2015 to 1,459 in 2040.

  • Age 35-54: 5,323 in 2015 to 5,507 in 2040.

  • Age 55-64: 2,424 in 2015 to 1,111 by 2040.

  • Age 65 and older: 2,629 in 2015 to 2,239 by 2040.


DRG-A


At 17.38%, Wilton is projected to have the third-highest population decrease in the DRG-A — its district reference group, which also includes Darien, New Canaan, Easton, Redding, Ridgefield, Weston and Westport.

Darien is the only DRG-A town projected to see a rise in population between 2015 and 2040 — from 21,026 in 2015 to 22,250 in 2040, a 5.82% increase.

Weston is projected to have the largest drop in population, at 27.45% — from 9,659 in 2015 to 7,007 in 2040, followed by Easton at 24.27% — from 7,115 in 2015 to 5,388 in 2040.

Westport’s population is projected to decline 17.2% between 2015 and 2040 — from 26,194 to 21,688.

Despite a projected population increase between 2030 and 2040, Ridgefield’s population is also projected to drop — 9.59% between 2015 and 2040, from 24,541 to 22,187.

New Canaan is also projected to see an increase between 2030 and 2040, but its population between 2015 and 2040 is expected to fall 5.98% — from 19,744 to 18,563.

Redding’s population was 9,263 in 2015, and that is projected to fall to 9,007 by 2040, reflecting a 2.76% decrease.

The Connecticut State Data Center’s town and state population projections are available at ctsdc.uconn.edu/2015_2040_projections.